Saturday, November 26, 2022



Severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident on D4/Tuesday from eastern TX into the ArkLaMiss region, as low-level moisture, midlevel lapse rates, and deep-layer wind shear all strengthen in advance of a deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant surface cyclone moving eastward across the Great Plains and Midwest.

The highest severe probabilities for D4/Tuesday have been maintained across the ArkLaMiss region, where the most favorable overlap of instability, low-level and deep-layer shear, and storm coverage is currently expected. Some adjustments remain likely as the event approaches, depending on model trends regarding the timing of the mid/upper-level trough and cold front.

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