Friday, March 6, 2020

Spring Flood Potential Outlook


...FLOOD RISK IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MID-SOUTH...

For the spring of 2020, the Lower Mississippi and Southeast River
Forecast Centers are calling for above average flood potential.
Given that spring is a historically active period for river
flooding, this outlook indicates that the Mid-South can expect to
see the number and magnitude of river floods to be higher than
normal.

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE.
Average soil moisture values for the past month are above normal
across all of the Mid-South. The largest current departures from
normal are over northern Mississippi. Current soil moisture is above
the 80th percentile (top 20 percent of past values) over the Mid-
South, with areas south of Tupelo in the top 1 percent.

CLIMATE REGIME.
The past couple of months have had an active weather pattern. Storm
systems have regularly impacted the Mid-South. During January and
February, several of these systems brought multi-inch rains to parts
of the area.

SNOWPACK.
The latest analysis show snowpack over the upper Mississippi
River Valley. Snow water equivalent values are 1 to 2 inches in
the upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the Ohio River Valley has
no snowpack.

RAINFALL.
Over the past 90 days, above normal precipitation has occurred over
most of the Mid-South region. Rainfall has ranged from near normal
to over 200 percent of normal in parts of northeastern Mississippi.
The area of above-normal precipitation extended into the Ohio and
mid Mississippi River Valleys.

RECENT FLOODING.
During the early part of 2020, widespread river and areal flooding
has occurred across the Mid-South. Moderate to major flooding was
observed along the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Tombigbee Rivers.
Other rivers had periods of high water with levels above action and
flood stages.

RESERVOIR STATUS.
The reservoirs in the area for water supply storage are very high.
The flood storage on the reservoirs are below 50 percent.

DROUGHT AREAS.
With the recent significant rainfall, no areas of the Mid-South are
in drought status. The Mid-South is not forecast to go into drought.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK.
The 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook has slight odds for above-
normal precipitation over eastern Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel,
west Tennessee, and extreme northern Mississippi. The 3-month
outlook for March/April/May shows stronger odds for above-normal
precipitation over all of the Mid-South.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.
Above average flood potential for the rivers in the Mid-South.
Therefore, expect to see the number and magnitude of river floods to
be higher than normal.

RELATED WEBSITES...

For detailed information concerning weather conditions, river
stages, and forecasts for the Mid-South, please visit the following
websites.

**NWS WFO Memphis:  www.weather.gov/memphis
**Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center:  www.weather.gov/lmrfc
**Southeast River Forecast Center:   www.weather.gov/serfc
**NWS WFO Memphis Lake/River Status:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=meg
**NOAA AHPS Rainfall Totals:  water.weather.gov/precip
**Climate Prediction Center:  www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
**U.S. Drought Information:  www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Spring Flood
Outlook, please contact:

NWS WFO Memphis, TN
7777 Walnut Grove Rd., Suite 1
Memphis, TN 38120
Phone: 901-544-0399
Email: sr-meg.webmaster@noaa.gov

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