Wednesday, March 18, 2020

A Remote Strong to Severe Storm Today

520 AM March 18, 2020

A warm front will be lifting north through W. TN today.  Dew point readings at 5:20 AM were in the upper 40s to mid-50s across the region.  Once the front lifts north, dew points will surge into the 60s. The warm frontal boundary coupled with the increased instability produced by the higher dew point readings will result in a low chance for a severe storm to develop.  Meanwhile...just before dawn...a large area of rain with embedded, isolated thunderstorms is located west of the MS River.

Referring to the forecast radar animation between 9 AM and 2 PM...the area of precipitation will move into West TN.  Note during this time period thunderstorms will begin to show up (areas of red). This is approximately when the front is lifting through.  It will be during this time that a strong thunderstorm could develop.  This is a low risk...however if one is able to go severe damaging wind gusts (58 mph +) would be the main threat.

Forecast Radar Animation 

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