Thursday, October 17, 2019

Potential Tropical Cyclone Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Portions of Northern Gulf Coast

1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019...FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West.  The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.

WTWO 7-DAY FORECAST


Highs / Lows / Rainfall


To Become a Tropical or Subtropical Storm Later Today

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN GREEN POLYGON

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or
subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico.  The low is forecast to approach the northern or
northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of
development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough
surf over those areas.  Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this
weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.  For more information
about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

- NHC 

Thursday Morning Area Forecast


Forecast for Jackson and Vicinity
West Tennessee Weather Online Jackson TN
510 AM CDT THU OCT 17 2019

.TODAY...Mostly sunny.  High 65. Wind north 5-10 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mainly clear.  Low near 40. Near calm wind.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny and pleasant. High 71. Wind east 5-10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...A few passing clouds. Low 46.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 73.

...EXTENDED FORECAST... (Friday through Monday)

.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Low 52. High 77.
.MONDAY...Breezy. An 80 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 73.
.TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 66.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Low 46. High around 70.

REH