There have been a couple of changes with the early morning outlook. Models have indicated an increase in instability factors. What will be noticeable to us will be dew points getting into the low 70s (the first time this year). Clouds this morning are forecast to break and go partly sunny this afternoon and temperatures will get into the middle 80s.
This has led the SPC to upgrade West TN to a level 3 of 5 Enhanced Risk.
|If you draw a line from Big Sandy to Bolivar...west of that line... |
there is an additional risk of 2"+ hail. (Hen Egg).
The probability of that happening is 10%.
|The large hail and damaging winds were raised to 30%. |
There are 6 percentage categories and 30% is in the 3rd level out of 6.
Individual thunderstorm cells that occur could become supercells this evening. Those are the ones that can produce the very large hail and a tornado threat (5%). The squall line associated with the incoming cold front will carry the damaging wind threat (30%). The squall line will come into play after 9 PM.