Saturday, April 11, 2020

Probability Maps for Sunday's Severe Weather Threat

For all outlooks, the probability values represent the chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any point, which is about the size of a major metropolitan area.

As an example, if you have a 15% probability for tornadoes, this means you have a 15% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location. 

  • This may seem like a low number, but a tornado is very uncommon at any one location. 
  • Normally, your chances of getting hit by a tornado or other severe weather are small, purely based on the statistical average. 
  • Let's say you have a 1% statistical (climatology) history of tornadoes within 25 miles on this day, which still is large. 
  • Having a 15% probability means 15 times the normal odds of a tornado nearby, meaning it should be taken seriously. 
  • The probabilities for severe thunderstorm wind and hail also have the same meaning as they do for tornadoes, but typically will be higher numbers than for tornadoes, since they are much more common.


DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY


HAIL PROBABILITY


 TORNADO PROBABILITY
The hatched area represents a 10% chance of a
tornado of EF2 or greater will occur within
25 miles of your location.

ALL INFORMATION PROVIDED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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