Thursday, October 17, 2019

To Become a Tropical or Subtropical Storm Later Today

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN GREEN POLYGON

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or
subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico.  The low is forecast to approach the northern or
northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of
development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough
surf over those areas.  Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this
weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.  For more information
about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

- NHC 

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